The Future of Commerce
38 insights into how we’ll shop
Greg Isenberg
Sep 4, 2024
I’ve been thinking a lot about the future of commerce lately. Not the “10% off your next purchase” kind of future.
I’m talking about the “your fridge just ordered milk without asking you” kind of future. It’s exciting. It’s a little scary. And it’s closer than we think.
I’ve compiled 38 predictions that might shape how we buy and sell in the coming years.
Some are based on trends we’re already seeing. Others are wild guesses.
AI personal shoppers will be everywhere. Imagine Rufus, Amazon’s AI, but smarter and working for you across all stores, learning your style better than your best friend ever could
AI will haggle for you, but smartly. Your AI agent might negotiate with ten stores simultaneously, snagging deals while you sleep, without burning bridges like an aggressive human negotiator would. And the internet will add more haggling. It won’t just be buy this or not.
“Buy now, receive later” will be huge. You’ll lock in future gifts at today’s prices, with brands offering bonuses for committing early. It’s like Future You thanking Present You for being so thoughtful. Ecommerce brands get to lock in your commitment. Everyone wins.
Holographic stores will pop up anywhere. Picture browsing a Rolex store on your morning commute, with your phone turning any space into a showroom.Strange but interesting.
Pricing will get personal, but not creepy. Like how Netflix recommends shows, stores will offer individualized pricing that feels fair, not exploitative. Shopping late at night and the store is quiet, maybe prices are lower.
Ephemeral stores will create urgency. Brands will drop limited-time shops that feel like IG stories, driving FOMO and rapid sales while getting to tell the brand story.
Human support is the new luxury. Getting to talk to a real person will feel like walking into a store and them handing you a perrier. Luxe. Brands will use human customer service as a flex.
Niche stores will thrive in Amazon’s shadow. The more specific your product (left-handed fishbowls, anyone?), the better you’ll do against the giants.
Every storefront will adapt to you. Like Spotify’s Discover Weekly, but for shopping - every visit will feel tailored just for you.
Shopping will feel like gaming, but useful. You might earn points buying groceries that unlock real-world perks, making mundane purchases feel rewarding.
Community will trump discounts. The best brands (the ones with the highest LTV/word of mouth/retention) will build loyal followings like CrossFit, where belonging matters more than saving a few bucks.
Indie creators will reshape e-commerce. Solo entrepreneurs with Shopify and a Stripe loan will run circles around VC-backed startups, bringing fresh ideas to the market.
Customers will become co-creators. Like Lego Ideas but for everything, your power users will drive product development, ensuring built-in demand.
Content will be the new storefront. Brands will become media companies first, with purchasing feels like a natural extension of binge-watching their content.
Creators will be the new big-box retailers. Your favorite YouTuber or TikToker might become your go-to store for everything from gadgets to groceries.
Post-purchase experiences will make or break brands. Unboxing will become an art form, with brands focusing as much on the delivery experience as the product itself.
SMS will be a goldmine, if used right. The brands that text like a considerate friend rather than a pushy salesperson will see insane conversion rates.
Shopping online will feel like exploring a 3D space. Imagine browsing a store as intuitive as using Google Maps, but for products.
Boring marketing will outperform flashy campaigns. While everyone’s chasing viral TikToks, the real money will be in AI-optimized email flows and SEO. Note: hire BoringMarketing.com (to rank on Google) and BoringAds.com (to get profitable ad campaigns).
Creators will be the new product curators. We’ll trust individual tastemakers over algorithms to tell us what’s worth buying.
Mood-based shopping will be the new impulse buy. Stores will recommend products based on how you’re feeling, not just what you’ve bought before.
Second-hand will become first choice. “New” won’t be the default filter anymore as sustainability becomes non-negotiable.
In-house creators either created by AI or real human beings will be the most valuable marketing asset of many brands.
A significant amount of commerce will be sold live (ie: IG live style). Your favorite creator hosting a live show where you can buy products in real-time. This will be embedded on websites and you can already do this on social platforms.
Auctions and flash sales will become high-stakes games. Limited-time deals will feel like participating in a fun, adrenaline-pumping competition.
Brands will sell lifestyles, not just products. The most successful companies will make you feel like you’re joining a movement, not just buying stuff.
Stores will educate first, sell second. The brands that teach you something valuable will earn your trust and your business. Before you start your Shopify, you’ll probably start a YouTube.
"Skill-locked commerce" will gate purchases behind abilities. Want that pro-level camera? You’ll need to pass a photography skills test first. Commerce becomes a game to be mastered.
AI will design products based on real-time trends. Imagine fast fashion, but for every industry, with products created and manufactured in days based on current demand.
Voice commerce will become second nature. You’ll reorder household items as easily as asking Alexa to play a song.
Augmented reality will eliminate (kinda) buyer’s remorse. You’ll know exactly how that couch looks in your living room before you buy it.
“Buy with friends” will explode. Your friends will become part of your shopping experience, voting on your choices in real-time.
AI copywriters will A/B test product descriptions in real-time. Every product page will optimize its language for you specifically, changing as you browse.
Hot brands will offer “silent drops” to combat bots. No announcements, just random availability. Real fans who check often get rewarded, not scalpers with algorithms.
Your fridge will have its own budget and shopping rights. It’ll restock itself within parameters you set, negotiating with different grocery services for the best deals.
Brands will offer “social proof” discounts. The more of your friends who own a product, the cheaper it gets for you. It’s network effects, but for your wallet.
Brands will offer “viral warranties.” The more you share about a product, the longer its warranty extends. Your social influence becomes a form of insurance.
Brands will sell “decision rights” for future products. Buy shares in a company’s next design choice. It’s like kickstarter, but you’re shaping brands at a DNA level.
Some of these predictions might materialize next month. Others might never see the light of day. That’s the nature of looking ahead - we’re all just making educated guesses.
But one thing is for certain. The future of commerce is being written right now. And we’re all holding the pen.
Note: I write posts like this every week, packed with free startup ideas, insights on business building, and strategies for succeeding in the online world. It’s called Greg’s letter.
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